Worldwide Prediction on COVID-19 Spreading Future Trends using Gaussian Model

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 is a pandemic, which covered to all over the world and started the end of 2019. COVID-19 spreading rapidly from person to person and from one environment to another environment. In the current situation the entire world is passing through a very critical situation and medical services almost collapse due to the span of COVID-19. The virus is directly threatening to human being's life and attack to their nervous system, collapse lungs, breathing problems and damage other parts of the body system. The researcher build a predictive model using a Gaussian approach to find out the current status of COVID-19 and its future prediction. This predictive model is very helpful for countries and before timely they can manage their health related services, make a change in their decision making policy to stop COVID-19 spreading. Method: in this research paper the researcher builds a predicting model using real time analytics to measure the intensity of spreading COVID-19 in major concern countries. The main objective of this research article to predict the rate of spreading COVID-19 cases, visualize, and represent the future trends of COVID-19 cases. For the predictive analysis the researcher used the Gaussian Prediction model, time series analysis, exploratory data analysis, and K-means clustering. The researcher used the parameters such as rate of spreading, slow down speed, a sudden change in rate, prediction of the number of cases and differences in mortality rate. The results: The researcher discussed the weekly, monthly rate of spreading COVID-19 cases and predicted how it covered the world entire populations. The predictive model is very helpful to the countries where a number of cases are rapidly spreading and showing the future trends whether it is decreasing or increasing ratio. The countries can manage their health related services and other possible resources to stop the COVID-19 cases in their countries. If the prediction is unknown that situation is horrible for the entire world. Conclusion: Finally the researcher concluded that the predictive model of COVID-19 cases has significant impact to all over countries to show the future spreading trends, the accuracy level of this predictive model is 92% which is verified by using Gaussian approach. In some cases prediction might be unfavorable to handle the health care industries that are only %8 chances. The researcher giving the assurance the developed predictive model is more reliable and efficient to predict the COVID-19 case and its future trends, so the countries and their health related unit can manage the health related services in rapid manner.