Worldwide dynamic predictive analysis of building performance under long-term climate change conditions

Abstract

Around the world, expected climate changes can affect indoor comfort conditions in buildings. Analysing the climate in which buildings are located is the first step towards high-efficiency design, and today it is no longer possible to ignore impending climate change. This study has provided a worldwide picture of how comfort conditions inside a building can change as external climatic conditions change. For the first time, a building is tested worldwide over a long-term period, and not just in a specific climate or a small group of climates. Several cities homogeneously distributed around the world were selected, covering all climates of the Köppen-Geiger classification. A hypothetical building was implemented with the Termolog Epix 11 software in order to monitor the operative temperature (TOP) in free-floating mode on an hourly basis and test its temperature variations in the short, medium and long term. The percentage values of the hours when the TOP is in a comfort or discomfort conditions were compared for all configurations. The results showed that the comfort conditions vary with the climate. Climate zone A displayed for most subclimates high TOP values. Climate zone B showed an irregular trend, from 2020 to 2080 the hours when TOPs fall below 20 °C decreased in most locations. Climate zone C included areas where TOPs are mostly in the comfort range. Some sub-climates in zone D show very cold climates, with an average of about 15–20% of the annual hours in the comfort zone in 2020, then increasing slightly by a few percentage points in 2080.