Worldwide development of renewable energy in the context of Russia’s geo-economic interests

Abstract

Aim. The presented study aims to assess the impact of the worldwide development of renewable energy on Russia’s geo-economic interests and to formulate proposals for reducing the negative aspects of such influence.Tasks. The authors examine materials related to the topic of the study; analyze trends in the development of renewable energy sources (RES) worldwide; identify threats to hydrocarbon exports from Russia associated with the development of RES; show Russia’s export potential in the hydrogen market; assess threats associated with plans for the production of hydrogen based on RES in the long term in countries that are major potential importers of hydrogen from Russia; formulate proposals for reducing the negative impact of possible threats.Methods. The research methodology includes the method of analyzing the primary data of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) on the level and pace of development of renewable energy in countries serving as major importers of energy commodities from Russia; data from the RENEWABLES 2021 (REN 21) report of the global renewable energy community, which unites the representatives of science, government, and industry; information posted on the official websites of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the largest Russian mineral companies, and information contained in the works of Russian and foreign authors.Results. With existing technologies, renewable energy sources do not pose a significant threat to the exports of hydrocarbons from Russia for the next 5–10 years. This is due to the insignificant share of renewable energy in energy production and consumption, volatility of energy production depending on weather conditions, excess of investment in traditional energy compared to investment in renewable energy, and long-term contracts for the supply of fossil resources to China.Conclusion. During the active introduction of hydrogen energy (presumably until 2030), the demand for hydrocarbon fuel will persist if there is a tendency for its decrease In the long term, the development of renewable energy will inevitably lead to the replacement of Russian hydrogen imports with green hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources in importing countries. In this case, the global demand for hydrogen exports will inevitably fall, as will the demand for CO2 capture and storage services; the global price of hydrogen will decrease. During this period, it is advisable to specialize in the export of technologies, including in the field of hydrogen energy.