World Population, Human Disaster and Nuclear Holocaust

Abstract

Too little attention is being paid to the theoretical mechanics of dealing with the optimum level of human population. Yet without such efforts, population goals are essentially meaningless and there is little incentive to curtail population growth. In an attempt to take a step in that direction, the author discusses a broad class of interrelated phenomena--consisting of various threats to human existence--that hinge strongly on population density. Then he develops simple conceptual models that provide a quantitative population dependence for various threats. These are always expressed as a simple power of population. Only threats of disasters that increase with an increase in population density are considered, eliminating most natural disasters. Threats of the 1st order, such as those from nuclear wastes and chemical pollutants, increase with an increase in population and a resultant increase in production. However, with increasing crowding and dependency upon high energy systems to provide basic resources, many 1st order threats can become threats of the 2nd of higher orders. The burial of nuclear wastes, for example, presents a threat of the 2nd order by affecting 1) the integrity of the geological formation at the burial site; and 2) the quantity of the radioactive material. As the relationship between population and interdependency strengthens, the crucial question will concern the stability of the independent networks; 1 error, due to human frailty or malice, can destroy a chain supplying food, energy, communications, or water. Into this system are thrown nuclear weapons, which, through human error or malice, could demolish the world. To illuminate some of the major elements of the nuclear threat, a model based on the threshold concept of nuclear armaments was created. This concept recognizes that any alliance of people possessing a minimum of technological and economic resources could build and deploy nuclear weapons. Most alliances will constitute no danger, but as the number of overthreshold alliances increase, so does the danger. A uniform doubling of world population would increase the threat of nuclear warfare eightfold. The interplay of population, economics, and other factors will have an effect on the number who have developed nuclear weapons, the initiation factors, and order. Other modifying factors are: 1) the role of interdependence; 2) political-psychological motivations; 3) political autonomy; 4) nuclear fuel economics; 5) the climate of agression; and 6) population and poverty. The prospect of nuclear holocaust, increasing with increasing population, is a major factor in the urgent need to define and implement world population goals.