World Population Growth and the Role of Annual Energy Use per Capita

Abstract

Is there a sustainable solution for the world and the resources it needs to maintain a decent standard of living for everybody, at a population very much higher than today’s? Clearly, there cannot be both a permanent growth in the use of materials and a sustainable future. In this article, the focus is on the possible coupling of the annual energy use per capita and the population growth rate for each region; and the consequences of such a connection if the world’s population is to stabilize. Energy is used as a factor because it is a proactive agent in facilitating increases in the standard of living and changes in the social conditions which are believed to influence the fertility rate. Historical trends and near-term projections for energy use and population growth rate are used to indicate a possible path in the future for developing regions. Improvements in the efficiency of energy use and modest cultural changes are invoked in an example projection of coupled energy use and population growth. For each decade, the incremental increase in annual commercial energy use per capita and a corresponding decrease in population growth rate are chosen to continue the historical trends for developing regions of the world. This approach leads to population changes following closely the projections of the World Bank for the period up to 2150. The world energy use is projected to rise from about 9000 million tonnes of oil equivalent today to 15,000 to 21,000 Mtoe/a by the time the world’s population has risen from 6 billion to around 12 billion people in the 22nd century. The energy demands of each developing region are compared with potential, indigenous energy sources to see whether each developing region might be able to cope with its increased energy demand, without massive energy imports. It seems that the availability of easily moveable, cheap fuels, requiring the use of all energy sources, will be important to allowing the developing world to make the transition to a stable population with a decent standard of living.