Abstract
It is shown that the world distribution of gross domestic products per capita (GDPpc) is well described by a trade-investment model that combines yard–sale (YS) exchange and random multiplicative noise (RMN). We first derive analytically the typical value w(r, t) of the ranked wealths for a system evolving under YS exchange and RMN. The resulting analytical expressions are fitted to data for the GDPpc of up to 200 countries, in the period 1960–2013. Our model fits the data significantly better than previously proposed approaches that consider either Noise or Trade alone. Analysis of the resulting values for the fitting parameters, and of their time dependence, suggests that: (a) International trade conditions have (from 1960 to 2008) a statistical bias towards favoring richer countries. (b) Biased international commerce is the main cause for the observed divergence of GDPpc values from 1960 to 2008. (c) After 2008, the distribution of GDPpc starts to converge, and the world product per capita stops growing.
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