World Biofuels Production Potential Understanding the Challenges to Meeting the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard

Abstract

This study by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates the worldwide potential to produce biofuels including biofuels for export. It was undertaken to improve our understanding of the potential for imported biofuels to satisfy the requirements of Title II of the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) in the coming decades. Many other countries biofuels production and policies are expanding as rapidly as ours. Therefore, we modeled a detailed and up-to-date representation of the amount of biofuel feedstocks that are being and can be grown, current and future biofuels production capacity, and other factors relevant to the economic competitiveness of worldwide biofuels production, use, and trade. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) identified and prepared feedstock data for countries that were likely to be significant exporters of biofuels to the U.S. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) calculated conversion costs by conducting material flow analyses and technology assessments on biofuels technologies. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) integrated the country specific feedstock estimates and conversion costs into the global Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) model. The model uses least-cost optimization to project the future state of the global energy system in five year increments. World biofuels production was assessed over the 2010 to 2030 timeframe using scenarios covering a range U.S. policies (tax credits, tariffs, and regulations), as well as oil prices, feedstock availability, and a global CO{sub 2} price. All scenarios include the full implementation of existing U.S. and selected other countries biofuels policies (Table 4). For the U.S., the most important policy is the EISA Title II Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). It progressively increases the required volumes of renewable fuel used in motor vehicles (Appendix B). The RFS requires 36 billion (B) gallons (gal) per year of renewable fuels by 2022. Within the mandate, amounts of advanced biofuels, including biomass-based diesel and cellulosic biofuels, are required beginning in 2009. Imported renewable fuels are also eligible for the RFS. Another key U.S. policy is the $1.01 per gal tax credit for producers of cellulosic biofuels enacted as part of the 2008 Farm Bill. This credit, along with the DOE's research, development and demonstration (RD&D) programs, are assumed to enable the rapid expansion of U.S. and global cellulosic biofuels production needed for the U.S. to approach the 2022 RFS goal. While the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has yet to issue RFS rules to determine which fuels would meet the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and land use restrictions specified in EISA, we assume that cellulosic ethanol, biomass-to-liquid fuels (BTL), sugar-derived ethanol, and fatty acid methyl ester biodiesel would all meet the EISA advanced biofuel requirements. We also assume that enough U.S. corn ethanol would meet EISA's biofuel requirements or otherwise be grandfathered under EISA to reach 15 B gal per year.