Abstract

Subject UK election outlook. Significance If not this year, a general election will definitely take place in 2020. The working-class vote is less predictable than it has been in a long time. Parties' ability to adapt their positions to reflect working-class concerns could prove vital in determining the election outcome. Impacts An election during a Brexit extension would increase the chances of a hung parliament. If Brexit happens, the Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats will continue to play a very important role in UK politics. If London refuses to grant Scotland an independence referendum, Scottish nationalists may pursue a unilateral approach.

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