Working with Scenarios: Introducing the Basic Method

Abstract

In this chapter, we set out the various stages of the basic scenario process. This model follows the approach developed over many decades by a number of writers (e.g. Schwartz, 1991; van der Heijden et al., 2002) and organizations (e.g. Global Business Networks (GBN]; SRI International). As outlined in Chapter 1, it relies upon the application of “intuitive logics” (Jungermann and Thuring, 1987), and is focused on the development of multiple scenarios that explore the “limits of possibility” for the future, rather than on the development of singular, “normative” scenarios of some ideal future to which to aspire. We have worked with and developed this scenario method over many years, engaging with many different organizational and country contexts, and with a variety of mixes of stakeholders. We have operated within project timescales that range from a few hours and a single set of rough scenarios, to several months and multiple iterations of scenario development, leading to highly-detailed scenario presentations. In order to enable you to develop and apply your own skills in working with scenarios in different situations, we offer approaches to creating scenarios that range from the application of “scenario thinking” by the individual in analyzing options in response to a complex problem within a constrained timeframe, to the use of “scenario method” by groups of diverse organizational members and stakeholders working together over a period of a few hours or many months. We outline the various stages of our scenario method, each of which addresses a specific element of the analytic process. At this point, we must clarify that, in our experience, having a fairly tightly structured process makes it easier and more comfortable for participants to deal with the complexities, ambiguities and uncertainties of the content. The rigid structure provides a lifeline within the sea of turbulence.