Work disability and the Northern Irish Troubles*

Declan French,Sharon Cruise

doi:10.1111/obes.12435

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, we examine the labour market implications of permanent illness or injury from conflict among civilians. From 1969 to 1998, Northern Ireland experienced a violent ethnopolitical conflict characterized by terrorist bombing campaigns, sectarian killings and armed forces patrolling the streets. The consequences of this period for current high work disability rates are disputed by the main political parties. We address this question using a new high‐quality dataset. Potential endogeneity and reverse causation issues are addressed using the intensity of conflict‐related deaths as instruments. We find clear evidence that conflict has increased work disability by 28% points. The main doctor‐diagnosed medical condition mediating this effect is mental ill health.

Highlights

From 1969 to 1998, Northern Ireland (NI) experienced a violent ethnopolitical conflict known locally as ‘the Troubles’ which was characterized by terrorist bombing campaigns, sectarian killings and armed forces patrolling the streets
The Troubles would appear to have had less of an effect on education than these other conflicts with NI outperforming the rest of the United Kingdom (UK) in secondary school examination results during this time (Education, Science and Arts Committee, 1983)
There is evidence to suggest that the negative effects of conflict on mental well-being are transmitted intragenerationally as the children of mothers whose lives were affected by historical political violence tend to have worse psychological health (Merrilees et al, 2011)

Summary

Introduction

From 1969 to 1998, Northern Ireland (NI) experienced a violent ethnopolitical conflict known locally as ‘the Troubles’ which was characterized by terrorist bombing campaigns, sectarian killings and armed forces patrolling the streets. A relatively recent literature has examined the effect of war exposure on earnings highlighting lower productivity due to lost opportunities for studying and working (Blattman and Annan, 2010; Akbulut-Yuksel, 2014; Kesternich et al, 2014). A related literature has explored health outcomes from conflict but has largely neglected the labour market implications of permanent illness from war experiences due to data limitations (Akbulut-Yuksel, 2017; Havari and Peracchi, 2017). Living through World War II retarded the accumulation of human capital leading to a permanent loss of labour productivity and earnings as educators were killed and schools were destroyed (Akbulut-Yuksel, 2014; Kesternich et al, 2014) with evidence that education effects are transmitted onwards intergenerationally (Havari and Peracchi, 2019). Pupils often reported an affective impact on their education despite considering schools a ‘safe haven’ from the conflict (Kilpatrick and Leitch, 2004)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion