Words of swords in the Caucasus: About a leading indicator of conflicts.

Abstract

A modest and rational way of getting communication intelligence is to analyze speeches of political leaders. This study's interest is in the communications that precede conflicts—in this case, the conflict between Georgia and the Russian Federation (January-August 2008) over the separatist regions of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia. This study analyzes statements by President Saakashvili of Georgia, by President Medvedev of the Russian Federation, and by Georgia's allies over this period. The study analyzes these statements using a computer-aided procedure of quantitative content analysis equipped with semantic filters tailored to forecast the risk of conflict based on the gap between power words (increasing) and affiliation words (decreasing) in texts, as McClelland (1975) showed. The larger the gap, the greater the risk. Because possible conflicts increase uncertainty, how much vagueness there was in the statements was also quantified. The statements by President Medvedev display a growing power motivation about Georgia and a style characterized by increasing precision. Despite the need to defend the territorial integrity of his country, President Saakashvili showed a decreasing risk of war while also using vaguer words, betraying uncertainty. Georgia's allies also show an increasing risk of war, but restraint prevailed. The Russian national revival movement of Eurasianism offers insight in helping to grasp the meaning of the events of August 2008 while also confirming the efficacy of McClelland's (1975) indicator of risk of conflict.