WITHDRAWN: Climate change dominates the water volume change of lake Qinghai during 1975 ∼ 2014

Abstract

Quantifying the contributions from climate change and human activities on the water volume change of Lake Qinghai has practical significance for water resources management and adaptation to climate change in the high-altitude regions. In this paper, we explored the water volume change of Lake Qinghai, the climate change and land use change in the Lake Qinghai basin, and distinguished the contribution of the climate change and human activities on the water volume change. The results show that the water volume change of lake decreased significantly by 9.2km3 during 1975-2004 and increased by 6.3 km3 during 2005-2014. The climate in the Lake Qinghai is becoming warmer and more humid, and land use changes are very slight. Based on the SWAT model, the land use change, climate change and the combined effect of both contributed 1.15%, 98.8% and 0.05% to the evolution of surface runoff into lake. From the water balance perspective and multiple regression model, the contribution of surface runoff into the lake, lake precipitation and evaporation to the change of lake water volume change are 66.05%, 22.6%, and 11.35%, respectively. Therefore, the contribution of climate change to lake water volume change is 99.21%, while the contribution of human activities represented by land use changes is only 0.76%, which indicates that climate change has the dominant impact on the water volume change of Lake Qinghai.