Wise use: using ecological models to understand and manage aquatic ecosystems

Abstract

Using ecological-response models to understand and improve management of aquatic ecosystems is increasingly common. However, there are many questions about reliability and utility that can make the use of ecological modelling fraught. One critical question is how ecological-response models translate to what happens in practice. Many models purport to improve management by simulating ecological response to changing conditions. This suggests that tangible benefits (e.g. increased biodiversity) should flow when recommendations for action are implemented. But testing these links is rare and there are implications if those links are tenuous. One problem leading to a lack of congruence between models and reality can be a lack of ecological data for the system being modelled. Incomplete understanding, erroneous assumptions about drivers or degree of variability, and uncritical use of expert opinion can all result in models that may be more likely to mislead than inform. Explicit validation of models, sensitivity testing and ongoing development of novel solutions to deal with incomplete data can all assist. So, wise and critical use of ecological models provides one mechanism to increase our ability to quantify adverse effects on, and project future trajectories of, aquatic ecosystems.