WIPCast: Probabilistic Forecasting for Aviation Decision Aid Applications

Abstract

Abstract : A fundamental shift in weather forecasting - to an approach that embraces probabilistic forecasting and forecast uncertainty - is crucial to advancing the science and utility of weather prediction. Toward that end, Impact Computing has teamed with the University of Washington's Department of Atmospheric Sciences to develop Weather Impact Probability Forecast (WIPCast) - a solution that builds upon the seminal work of Dr. Tony Eckel in the domain of probabilistic forecasting and its practical application. Our Phase I effort has laid the foundation for developing a decision support tool that substantially automates the risk analysis process via informed risk analysis whereby a user evaluates projected weather-related risk relative to their risk tolerance. The Phase I prototype in particular has yielded promising results, demonstrating our ability to effectively: - Use high resolution, mesoscale ensemble model outputs to produce forecast probabilities of meteorological variables critical to army aviation - Use calculated forecast probabilities to determine anticipated weather impacts on flight routes, in support of operational risk assessment and management - Provide an intuitive display of overall adverse weather impact probabilities along a flight path The importance of this capability to U.S. military operations cannot be overstated. In the commercial marketplace as well, a wide array of weather-sensitive businesses are critically dependent upon their ability to anticipate and manage weather-related risk.