Wintertime Subkilometer Numerical Forecasts of Near-Surface Variables in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Abstract

Abstract Numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems operational at many national centers are nowadays used at the kilometer scale. The next generation of NWP models will provide forecasts at the subkilometer scale. Large impacts are expected in mountainous terrain characterized by highly variable orography. This study investigates the ability of the Canadian NWP system to provide an accurate forecast of near-surface variables at the subkilometer scale in the Canadian Rocky Mountains in wintertime when the region is fully covered by snow. Observations collected at valley and high-altitude stations are used to evaluate forecast accuracy at three different grid spacing (2.5, 1, and 0.25 km) over a period of 15 days. Decreasing grid spacing was found to improve temperature forecasts at high-altitude stations because of better orography representation. In contrast, no improvement is obtained at valley stations due to an inability of the model to fully capture at all resolutions the intensity of valley cold pools forming during nighttime. Errors in relative humidity reveal that the model tends to overestimate relative humidity at all resolutions, without improvement with decreasing grid spacing. Wind speed forecasts show large improvements with decreasing grid spacing for high-altitude stations exposed to or sheltered from wind. However, no systematic improvement with decreasing grid spacing is found for all stations, which is similar to previous studies. In addition, the model’s sensitivity at subkilometer grid spacing is investigated by evaluating the effects of (i) accounting for additional drag generated by subgrid orographic features, (ii) considering slope angle and aspect on surface radiation, and (iii) using high-resolution initialization for the surface fields.