WINTER ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKINGS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGES IN RECENT DECADES (1980–2018)

Abstract

The analysis of winter atmospheric blockings in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) under climate changes in 1980–2018 was carried out. The results of the analysis indicate a significant increase in the total duration of winter atmospheric blockings τ in the NH in recent decades. The noted trend was revealed against the background of a rapid increase in the NH surface air temperature T in winter seasons. The parameter of sensitivity of the atmospheric blockings duration to changes in the NH surface air temperature in winter seasons for the period 1980–2018 was estimated. The statistically significant estimate obtained means an increase in τ by more than one and a half times with an increase in the mean winter surface air temperature of the NH by 1K. A more significant relationship with T was obtained for values of τ above the average value of τc for the period 1980–2018, while at τ τc, the relationship was found to be statistically insignificant. The noted features are associated with differences in different phases of the key modes of climatic variability. In particular, the mean value of the surface air temperature of the NH in winter in the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) within the analyzed period of 1980–2018 significantly exceeded the corresponding mean value of T in the negative phase of AMO. At the same time, it was found that the mean value of the winter blockings duration in the NH in the positive AMO phase is one and a half times longer than in the negative AMO phase. For winter seasons, the estimates of the relationship between τ and the intensity of the Arctic anticyclonic center of action depending on the AMO phase were obtained.