Winning by Priming? Campaign Strategies, Changing Determinants of Voting Intention, and the Outcome of the 2002 German Federal Election

Abstract

Although governing coalitions in Germany often win reelection,many observers were surprised by the victory of the red-green coalitionin 2002. Earlier that year, the polls had shown strong supportfor a potential coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)and the Christian Social Union (CSU), together with the Free DemocraticParty (FDP). In the summer of 2002, however, the SPD andthe Greens began to gain ground; and finally, the red-green coalitionwon the majority of seats in the election to the German parliament,the Bundestag, on 22 September 2002.