Abstract
Previous research has shown that the production of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica), the main source of high-quality coffee, will be severely affected by climate change. Since large numbers of smallholder farmers in tropical mountain regions depend on this crop as their main source of income, the repercussions on farmer livelihoods could be substantial. Past studies of the issue have largely focused on Latin America, while the vulnerability of Southeast Asian coffee farmers to climate change has received very little attention. We present results of a modeling study of climate change impacts on Arabica coffee in Indonesia, one of the world’s largest coffee producers. Focusing on the country’s main Arabica production zones in Sumatra, Sulawesi, Flores, Bali and Java, we show that there are currently extensive areas with a suitable climate for Arabica coffee production outside the present production zones. Temperature increases are likely to combine with decreasing rainfall on some islands and increasing rainfall on others. These changes are projected to drastically reduce the total area of climatically suitable coffee-producing land across Indonesia by 2050. However, even then there will remain more land area with a suitable climate and topography for coffee cultivation outside protected areas available than is being used for coffee production now, although much of this area will not be in the same locations. This suggests that local production decline could at least partly be compensated by expansion into other areas. This may allow the country to maintain current production levels while those of other major producer countries decline. However, this forced adaptation process could become a major driver of deforestation in the highlands. We highlight the need for public and private policies to encourage the expansion of coffee farms into areas that will remain suitable over the medium term, that are not under legal protection, and that are already deforested so that coffee farming could make a positive contribution to landscape restoration.
Highlights
It has been well documented that agricultural production globally will be greatly affected by climate change (Brown and Funk 2008; Lobell et al 2008; Vermeulen et al 2012)
We show where areas of current and future climatic suitability for coffee expansion overlap with legally protected areas that may come under increasing pressure from coffee farmers, including farmers who may be displaced by climate change from their current coffee farms
Most current Arabica coffee producers across the Indonesian islands will be severely affected by climate change, especially in North Sumatra, Aceh and Flores, and in Sulawesi and Bali
Summary
It has been well documented that agricultural production globally will be greatly affected by climate change (Brown and Funk 2008; Lobell et al 2008; Vermeulen et al 2012). This is especially the case where climates become drier and less predictable, extreme weather events more frequent and intense, and where temperatures exceed the optimum for crop growth and development (Hannah et al 2013). Where crops are negatively affected, farmers may have to change management practices and varieties, diversify into alternative crops or livestock (Thornton et al 2009; Schroth and Ruf 2014), or leave agriculture altogether. In large countries that harbor a range of climatic conditions, positive and negative effects on crops may to some extent balance each other out at a national level
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