Abstract
This paper proposes a revaluation of the Brazilian wind energy policy framework and the energy auction requirements. The proposed model deals with the four major issues associated with the wind policy framework that are: long-term wind speed sampling, wind speed forecasting reliability, energy commercialization, and the wind farm profitability. Brazilian wind policy, cross-checked against other countries policies, showed to be too restrictive and outdated. This paper proposes its renewal, through the adoption of international standards by Brazilian policy-makers, reducing the wind time sampling necessary to implement wind farms. To support such a policy change, a new wind forecasting method is designed. The method is based on fuzzy time series shaped with a statistical significance approach. It can be used to forecast wind behavior, by drawing the most-likely wind energy generation intervals given a confidence degree. The proposed method is useful to evaluate a wind farm profitability and design the biding strategy in auctions.
Highlights
The implemented experiments aim at presenting the proposed method, that has as its main contribution to prove that it is possible to reduce the implementation time of wind-farms in Brazil, leading to a change in the Brazilian wind policy
This study aims at helping this energy matrix change in Brazil, that even with up to 60% of renewable sources, can become even greener and cheaper through fostering on wind energy
This paper tackle some of the main issues of wind power industries
Summary
Brazilian government aims at installing 17GW of new wind generation capacity by 2024 [1]. This represents a 10.9% expansion in the Brazilian energy matrix, and it is sufficient to power supply. It means that, for each year in advance this energy is available, the Brazilians save up to R$45,524,844,000.00, or US$14.05 billion. By adopting international regulations in Brazil, it makes possible to double that number, and make the energy available two years in advance. These significant savings shed light on this paper’s investigation. Brazilian wind notices so far are based on a Brazilian self-regulation, and demand a three years time wind measurements to afford the energy generation
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