Abstract
We used housing demolition and window replacement rates to forecast prevalence trends for childhood lead poisoning and lead paint hazards from 1990 to 2010 for the President's Task Force on Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks to Children. The mid‐point of that forecast has now been validated by national blood lead data and the 1998–2000 National Survey of Lead and Allergens in Housing. The validation of the task force model and new analysis of these survey data indicate that window replacement explains a large part of the substantial reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. A public‐private effort to increase window replacement rates could help eliminate childhood lead poisoning by 2010. This effort would also improve home energy efficiency and affordability, in addition to reducing air pollution from power plants, and a broader initiative could reduce other housing‐related health risks as well.
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