Windfall revenues and structural balance in the Czech Republic

Abstract

ABSTRACT Analysis of the structural balance is a crucial element for assessing the character of fiscal policy. However, this approach entails potential shortcomings, where some tax revenues may be affected by the development of variables other than the economic cycle. This can lead to skewed assessments of the fiscal effort because of the existence of windfall revenues/losses. We address this issue and identify windfall revenues in the Czech Republic. First, we calculate the elasticities of individual taxes on relevant macroeconomic variables. Then we test these variables for sensitivity to the economic cycle. The absence of such sensitivity suggests the possibility of windfall revenue. Further, we quantify the volume of the windfall revenue for 2007–2019. We found that the development of the rental market is the main factor influencing windfall revenue in the Czech Republic. The windfall revenue range is around 0.15% of GDP per year.