Wind Speed Statistical Analysis and Energy Assessment for Pulau Triso, Sarawak, Malaysia

Abstract

Statistical characteristics of a wind speed is an essential criterion for the estimation of wind energy yield assessment of a potential location for a wind farm. In this research, wind speed probability distribution of the low wind speed in Pulau Triso is estimated using two-parameters Weibull distribution, Rayleigh distribution, Burr distribution and Gamma distribution. The two parameters, k and c of the Weibull distribution are estimated using maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE), moment method (MM), graphical method, empirical method, and energy pattern factor method (EPF). Goodness of fit tests such as mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), Chi-Square test (x <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> ) and coefficient of determination (R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> ) are used to evaluate the credibility and accuracy of the probability distributions. Wind speed data are obtained from Nasa’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) database. The result from the goodness of fit tests showed that Gamma distribution performed flawlessly, followed by Weibull distributions with the exception of graphical method. Both Burr and Rayleigh distributions are not suitable in estimating the characteristics of wind speed at Pulau Triso. Wind speed where maximum amount of energy harvestable in Pulau Triso is 2.8m/s at 10m and 3.64m/s at 50m elevation above sea level.