Wind Speed Distributions: A New Catalogue of Defined Models

Abstract

Significant efforts has been dedicated to a statistical bivariate or univariate probability density function (pdf) as the model for compact representation of the enormous volume of raw wind data of a regime. This is essential for wind energy conversion system (WECS) studies or for power system planning and reliability studies. However, the literature review of this paper found that acceptance of only the industry-standard two-parameter Weibull model (WE2) is questionable. Complex wind speed phenomena demand a model that is good for both interpolation and extrapolation. The main objective of this study is to revitalise interest in wind speed frequency modelling by defining a catalogue of flexible theoretical/empirical models belonging to the Johnson, Gamma and Extreme Value families for new applicability. Definition is focussed on the three or more parameter models that are physically adaptable to wind speed. The robust Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) and Probability Weighted Moments (PW M) method accomplish parametric estimation. The lesser efficient, but popular, Method of Moments (MOM) is also given. This paper is a glossary of such models. The substantial task of investigation and justification of particular models for wind speed and wind power analysis is not attempted here.