Wind Speed and Power Forecasting - A Review and Incorporating Asymmetric Loss

Abstract

The energy turnaround in Europe increases the importance of wind speed as well as power predictions. This article provides a review of different forecasting approaches for wind speed and wind power. Moreover, recent time series models are discussed in more detail. The focus of this article are accurate short-and medium-term wind speed and power predictions. Finally, recent wind speed and power out-of-sample results are discussed and the problem of asymmetric loss is covered within this article. Precisely, over-and underestimation of wind power predictions have to be weighted in a different way. Therefore, it is reasonable to introduce an asymmetric accuracy measure. To cover the impact of asymmetric loss on wind speed and power predictions, a small example is presented which covers forecasts up to 24 hours.