Wind Power Prediction Using Genetic Programming Based Ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks (GPeANN)

Abstract

Over the past couple of years, the share of wind power in electrical power system has increased considerably. Because of the irregular characteristics of wind, the power generated by the wind turbines fluctuates continuously. The unstable nature of the wind power thus poses a serious challenge in power distribution systems. For reliable power distribution, wind power prediction system has become an essential component in power distribution systems. In this Paper, a wind power forecasting strategy composed of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Programming (GP) is proposed. Five neural networks each having different structure and different learning algorithm were used as base regressors. Then the prediction of these neural networks along with the original data is used as input for GP based ensemble predictor. The proposed wind power forecasting strategy is applied to the data from five wind farms located in same region of Europe. Numerical results and comparison with existing wind power forecasting strategies demonstrates the efficiency of the proposed strategy.