Wind Power Prediction for Wind Farm Clusters Based on the Multifeature Similarity Matching Method

Abstract

Regional wind power prediction (WPP) is conducive to achieving scientific dispatch of the power system as well as improving its reliability. Data mining based on a large number of samples is an effective way to improve the accuracy of WPP. A new regional power forecasting method in the context of data mining is proposed in the article. First, a previously described regional WPP method, single feature similarity matching (SFSM) method, is analyzed and a new multifeature similarity matching (MFSM) method is proposed. Second, the optimization and analysis processes of four key parameters in the MFSM method are proposed and the impact of each key parameter on prediction error and the applicability of the method under different regional scales is analyzed. Finally, the new method and the optimization and analysis processes are verified by wind farm clusters, composed of 52 wind farms in northeast China, and the new method is compared with the conventional method, such as additive method, statistical up-scaling method, and the SFSM method. The results show that the improved MFSM method is superior to the conventional prediction method, whereby the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0 to 2 h is reduced by 3.65% and the RMSE of 0 to 4 h is reduced by 1.56%. The new method has been proved to be an effective WPP method for wind farm clusters and has potential industrial application prospects.