Abstract
This paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users.The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.
Highlights
This paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group
Wind power forecasting has more than 20 years of operational use [1,2], and has seen continuous improvements during those years [e.g. 3]
For a day-ahead forecast, the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models is used as input in auto-regressive statistical or other machine learning models, which convert the meteorological data to power, consistent with the relationship between the two in the past
Summary
Wind power forecasting has more than 20 years of operational use [1,2], and has seen continuous improvements during those years [e.g. 3]. We will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts.
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