Wind power forecast with error feedback and its economic benefit in power system dispatch

Abstract

This study proposes a novel prediction model for uni- and multi-variable forecast, where error feedback is added to the original forecast value predicted using the persistence model. The error feedback mechanism is constructed to find out the relationship between the errors and the original forecast values. Simulation studies are carried out using wind power data obtained from two databases, and the results demonstrate that the proposed model provides a more accurate and stable forecast compared to other methods. Based on this, the economic benefit of accurate wind power forecast has been analysed for power system dispatch, which aims to minimise the operation cost. The dispatch results of two scenarios have shown that accurate forecast result decreases the cost of reserve capacity, balancer set invoking capacity and the possibility of wind curtailment, which leads to more economic dispatch of power systems.