Wind power correction method including multiple factors such as wind-abandon coefficient

Abstract

Wind power forecast plays an important role in wind farm operation and grid scheduling decisions. Prediction of power output from wind vector based on wind farm equivalent power curve is the final step of forecast, which has a lot of interaction with the grid dispatching, and it has a particularly prominent influence on the wind farm power output so as to cut down prediction accuracy. Focusing on the step of “wind-power transformation”, a correction method of day-ahead wind power forecast including multiple factors such as wind-abandon coefficient is proposed in this paper. Firstly, it is proved that the wind power prediction error is affected by a variety of factors, such as the amplitude of predicted power, the volatility of forecast as well as the stability of recent wind power output. And a model is built to quantify them respectively. Then the wind-abandon coefficient is introduced to modeling the effect of wind power curtailment activities of grid dispatching to forecast accuracy. Finally, the evaluation model of wind power forecasting error is built by using the multiple linear regression method and corrects the predictive value. Case study basing on the actual operation data of a wind farm in northern China has shown that the proposed method is effective to improve the accuracy level of wind power forecast.