Abstract
In order to estimate the impact of climate change on the phenological parameters and to compare them with the historical record, a decision support system (DSS) has been applied employing a Phenological Modelling Platform. Biological observations of two willow species (Salix acutifolia and smithiana Willd) in 3 gardens at different altitudes located in Central Italy were utilized to identify suitable phenological models related to four main vegetative phase timings (BBCH11, BBCH91, BBCH 94, BBCH95), and male full flowering (BBCH 65) clearly identifiable in these species. The present investigation identifies the best phenological models for the main phenophases allowing their practical application as real-time monitoring and plant development prediction tools. Sigmoid model revealed high performances in simulating spring vegetative phases, BBCH11 (First leaves unfolded), and BBCH91 (Shoot and foliage growth completed). Salix acutifolia Willd. development appeared to be more related to temperature amount interpreted by phenological models in comparison to Salix smithiana Willd. above all during spring (BBCH11 and 91), probably due to a different grade of phenotypic plasticity between the 2 considered species.
Highlights
Plant phenological development is mainly influenced by meteorological and climatic factors (Keller 2015), and temperature, solar radiation and precipitation may have a great influence on vegetative and reproductive development, yields and fruit characteristics (Kozlowski and Pallardy 1997; Moriondo et al 2015; Orlandi et al 2020)
The “International Phenological Gardens” network through protocols adoption furnish detailed professional observation-guide and the methodology for following the phenological observations is the same in all the gardens and the references toward the international standardized BBCH method is really recommended
PMP calculated a photoperiod using the latitude value of each site during the calculation period, considering whether T0 was situated during the increasing day length period (DLP) for spring phenological phases (BBCH 11, 91, 65) or during the decreasing DLP (BBCH 95) (Caffarra et al 2011)
Summary
Plant phenological development is mainly influenced by meteorological and climatic factors (Keller 2015), and temperature, solar radiation and precipitation may have a great influence on vegetative and reproductive development, yields and fruit characteristics (Kozlowski and Pallardy 1997; Moriondo et al 2015; Orlandi et al 2020). Temperature represents the main factor in the phenological development of plants, which allows the creation of efficient interpretative models for a wide range of species in many different countries and regions (Chuine et al 2013). Various plant species developments are modelled to predict phenophases and to assess the impact of temperature change on plants (García de CortázarAtauri et al 2010; Ibañez et al 2010; Pearson 2019; Rojo et al 2020). In these studies, the availability of standardized data is essential to assure the replicability of the same monitoring.
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