Will we travel less after the pandemic?

Abstract

During the pandemic, passenger transport has decreased dramatically due to restrictions and recommendations to avoid social contacts. Hopes and expectations have been raised that experiences, habits and improved digital services developed or discovered during the pandemic can lead to a permanent decrease of travel volumes even in the long run, thereby reducing emissions, noise and congestion. This paper discusses this question, based on descriptive analyses of historical development of travel distances and travel times in Sweden, including a description of how transportation changed in Sweden during the pandemic. Obviously, it is too early to give a conclusive answer regarding long run effects, but judging from historical experiences of previous improvements in transportation and communication, it seems unlikely that increased digital experience, improved digital services or changed habits will lead to permanently reduced travel volumes. It appears more likely that improved digital services and increased digital maturity will continue to transform work, shopping and leisure, but that this will not translate into decreased physical travel to any large extent.