Abstract
This study assesses the future role of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in thermal power generation in Brazil up to 2050, according to different carbon taxes using an integrated optimization energy planning model. The scenario with no carbon price emphasizes the relevance of coal and the sugarcane to the country's energy system. When a moderate carbon tax is applied, the least-cost option is mostly natural-gas-combined-cycle plants (CCGT) up to 2035. Then, coal-fired plants equipped with post-combustion CCS acquire importance. When higher carbon taxes are applied, all fossil-fuel thermal capacity installed after 2025 is equipped with CCS. Then, after 2040, the main choice is IGCC plants equipped with selexol CCS. Other policies, besides carbon prices, such as fiscal incentives, net metering and smart grids could also favor other options for the country, e.g. solar energy technologies. Results show that running long-term scenarios for Brazil up to 2035 might give a myopic vision of the country's energy supply. It is precisely after 2035 that the Brazilian energy system is deeply altered when it comes to match energy supply and demand.
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