Will the southward center of gravity migration of population, floor area, and building energy consumption facilitate building carbon emission reduction in China?

Abstract

Due to a considerable imbalance in the levels of social and economic development and urbanization in different regions of China, factors such as population, floor area, and building energy consumption have gradually undergone regional structural changes, and further show a specific center of gravity migration trend. The impact of this center of gravity migration on building carbon emissions deserves further exploration. Based on center of gravity model and comprehensive carbon emission reduction effect analysis model, this study depicts the center of gravity migration trajectory of China's population, floor area, building energy consumption, and elucidates the reduction effect of the center of gravity migration on building carbon emissions. Finally, the theoretical and essential reasons for the building carbon emission reduction effect are further discussed. The results showed that the center of gravity of China's population, floor area, building energy consumption, and building carbon emissions moved from north to south, with that for building energy consumption being most obvious (moved south by 1.22°). A total reduction of 32.7 million tCO2 in building carbon emissions was facilitated by the southward migration of the three centers of gravity. This occurred essentially because the southward migration of the center of gravity led to relatively cleaner building energy consumption across the country, which in turn weakened the overall energy consumption intensity and carbon emission factor. This study expands and deepens the theoretical mechanism of building carbon emission reduction, and provides a decision-making basis for government policymakers to balance regional differences to formulate differentiated building carbon emission reduction strategies.