Will the science and technology gap between China and USA becomes narrower, wider, or stay in the same in 50 years' time?

Abstract

It is acknowledged that currently USA overall takes a wide lead in science and technology ahead of China. Will the science and technology gap between China and USA becomes narrower, wider, or stay in the same in 50 years’ time? This question recently occurred to me when a few reports in media claimed that China has become the ‘globally second player’ in research and development (1-3). Unfortunately, the data presented in these media were quite quantitative, mostly concerning the number of papers published, the number of graduate students trained, the amount of funds spent on R&D. The qualitative aspects of R&D in China have not been well studied. Back in 2011 Wadhwa noted that the engineer graduates in China were less skilled compared their USA counterparts (4). Wadhwa commented that ‘ our (U.S.) engineers can think outside the box… U.S.-educated engineers learn a broad variety of skills…The graduates of U.S. engineering programs are productive from the day they graduate… Our engineering education system… gives us a big advantage in productivity, innovation and entrepreneurship ’. Wadhwa argues that there was no shortage of engineers in USA overall. In a free economy such as USA, supply responds to demand. Using salaries as the indicator, in most engineering professions salaries have not increased more than inflation over the past two decades, and graduating more of the wrong types of engineers is likely to increase unemployment rather than create jobs (4).