Abstract

Will the Florida Big Bend Area Become the Next Gulf of Mexico Reef Tract?

Highlights

  • Today, the best-developed coral reefs in the continental United States occur in the Florida Reef tract along some 580 km from the Dry Tortugas to the southeast coast of Florida between 24◦ and 26◦ N (Figure 1A; Morey et al, 2017; Cummings et al, 2018)

  • Temperature minimums are becoming less severe along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as reflected by the expansion of black mangroves into salt marsh habitats of the northern Gulf (Osland et al, 2013)

  • We make this assertion for a number of reasons: (1) abundant substrate is available in the form of the largest carbonate platform in the region (Morey et al, 2017), (2) low-relief outcroppings are abundant in the 10–20 m isobath (Phillips et al, 1990) where light and temperature will likely be conducive for reef accretion, (3) areas of the West Florida Shelf (WFS) influenced by the warm Loop Current waters currently support hermatypic reefs, and (4) extant reef systems offer a supply of potential recruits

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

The best-developed coral reefs in the continental United States occur in the Florida Reef tract along some 580 km from the Dry Tortugas to the southeast coast of Florida between 24◦ and 26◦ N (Figure 1A; Morey et al, 2017; Cummings et al, 2018) These long-lived communities encrust and have built upon earlier structures deposited during the Pleistocene and Holocene epochs (Shinn and Lidz, 2018). These west coast Florida ecosystems occur where they do because of warm-water delivery by the Loop Current, which brings oligotrophic water from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) (Cummings et al, 2018) Outside of this influence, actively accreting reef communities give way to more sparsely populated live bottom, characterized by cold-tolerant scleractinian and soft corals, sponges, hydrozoans, barnacles, seagrasses, and macroalgae (Jaap, 2015; Morey et al, 2017). The subtropical latitude and frequency of winter cold fronts appear to be keeping winter minimum temperatures below the 18◦C threshold critical to coral

Future Big Bend Reef Tract?
GoM CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS
OUR PREDICTION
CLIMATE CHANGE
MODERN EXAMPLES
PALEO EXAMPLES
Findings
MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS
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