Will the Eastern Nile countries be able to sustain their crop production by 2050? An outlook from water and land perspectives

Abstract

Securing agricultural commodities for a growing population requires a paradigm shift in agricultural thinking. An appropriate agricultural development pathway should be determined, which may include larger land extensions and water consumption or more intensive use of smaller extensions and optimized water use. This study addresses this question in the Eastern Nile Basin countries (ENC), namely Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, where such research is scarce. We utilized open-source datasets, based on relevant remote sensing products and agricultural statistics (harvested area, production, yield, and water footprint [WFP]), to understand the spatio-temporal variability of cropland performance. The study proposes a scenario-based approach that evaluates four development pathways towards sufficient crop production by 2050 in the ENC. While the extensification pathway suggests a continuation of the business-as-usual, i.e., same average WFP and yield values (horizontal scenario), three intensification pathways assume that increased efficiency can improve WFP and yield values (vertical scenarios). Results show that substantial amounts of water and land could be saved by 2050 by following the vertical development pathways. Nonetheless, the three countries, especially Egypt, are expected to face enormous challenges to satisfy their future demand for the main crops by 2050. Our research provides key messages to promote cooperation between the three countries by following a regional benefit-sharing approach to the challenge. The findings of the current study have deep implications on sustainable natural resources development and water and food security in such a vital and conflicted region.