Abstract
On the basis of administrative data for Belgium, we estimate a competing-risk model on transitions from employees aged 50 and older into unemployment, early and old-age retirement while accounting for forward-looking work disincentives. Our estimates are used to simulate a cut in early retirement benefits. Although this would enhance the financial sustainability of the social security system, our simulations predict a strong increase in unemployment among older blue-collar workers in traditional industries. Members of private saving plans or occupational pension schemes and highly educated workers are predicted to move into the old-age pension system.
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