Abstract
Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines—particularly among southern breeding colonies—and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.
Highlights
Worldwide, species are facing increasing challenges associated with rising sea- and air surface temperatures (Thomas et al, 2004)
These processes resulted in our selection of six environmental variables for analysis: annual temperature range (ATR), mean diurnal temperature range (MDR), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (MTWQ), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation of the warmest quarter (PWQ) and distance-to-ocean (DIST), a variable we created to help models discern suitable nesting habitat as occurring only in rocky, coastal habitats within meters of the sea, a biological requirement of puffins (Piatt & Kitaysky, 2002);
High model evaluation metrics (Table 1) coupled with strong correlations between temperature variables and Tufted Puffin range change (Figs. 1 and 2) provide confidence that projected warmer summer temperatures are likely to be associated with the loss of greater than 92% of Tufted Puffin breeding habitat in the California Current under the examined emission scenarios (Fig. 4)
Summary
Species are facing increasing challenges associated with rising sea- and air surface temperatures (Thomas et al, 2004). One approach to examining these linkages is to model the interaction between climate and suitable habitat for a given species, given what is already known about the relationship between the species and its habitat This approach has become an integral component of conservation planning in a world of changing environments (Hagen & Hodges, 2006; Richardson & Whittaker, 2010). Understanding these linkages can help inform conservation assessments and species and ecosystem management strategies (Carnaval & Moritz, 2008; Ponce-Reyes et al, 2017), for example, by estimating the likelihood of losing (or gaining) particular suitable habitats of interest under future climate conditions
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