Will Taiwan's Economy be Marginalized by China? A Macro-economic Policy Coordination Approach

Abstract

In Taiwan, economic marginalization has become a major concern that has resulted from the fast growing Chinese economy, imbalanced cross-strait economic and political relations, and a failure to participate in important international trade and financial organizations. Is a China-Taiwan policy cooperative mechanism the best choice for Taiwan's economic welfare? This paper is to measure Taiwan's economic marginalization by an international policy coordination approach instead of the conventional free trade agreements. We simulate macro-economic adjustments of Taiwan and its main economic partners (China and the US) according to the different institutional scenarios and economic shocks. The baseline simulation and sensitivity analyses imply that at the current stage policy coordination between China and Taiwan cannot come into effect without the US's participation.