Abstract

ABSTRACT This study explores the possible existence of threshold kink effects in the impact of the real dollar-renminbi exchange rate misalignment on the bilateral trade flows between the United States and China. Empirical results show a significant threshold effect, with differential effects of undervaluation and overvaluation. Specifically, our findings suggest that while an overvaluation of the Chinese currency over 2.83% will attenuate the United States’ trade deficit with China, an undervaluation greater than 4.04% will deepen it. This suggests that a revaluation of the renminbi against the dollar would be helpful in improving the United States trade balance with China.

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