Abstract

Few expect illegal drug markets to completely disappear in a world of legally regulated psychoactive substances, but it is likely that the regulation of currently illicit drugs would significantly challenge the business model of today’s drug trafficking organizations. This article examines if and to what extent governments can expect to profit from regulating illicit drugs in terms of their control over organized criminal activity. It argues that, especially among proponents of drug market regulation, expectations about the impact of regulation on organized crime control might be too high. Regulation might create opportunities to better fight organized crime, but policy-makers are likely to be confronted with a range of sometimes uncomfortable choices in dealing with this new situation. If drug market regulation will result in better control of organized crime is likely to depend on what decisions policy-makers will take.

Highlights

  • There is hardly any doubt that regulating drug markets would substantially challenge the business model of criminal groups currently profiting from their strategic position along the supply-chain for illegal drugs.1 whether this would provide governments with an advantage in keeping organized crime more in check remains hypothetical.Among advocates, the expectations of the impact of regulation on organized crime are high

  • Suggests that cannabis regulation has a crime-reducing effect, at least in the U.S and in some parts of Europe (Dragone et al 2018; Carrieri, Madio & Principe 2019). This commentary argues that more pessimistic scenarios of the impact of drug market regulation on organized crime could be plausibly envisioned for each of the three areas that advocates argue are key to the disempowerment of drug trafficking organization through market regulation

  • While it is likely that policing resources would be freed by drug markets regulation, what is known about law enforcement and law enforcement agencies suggests that it remains questionable if these resources could be used to fight the most dangerous and harmful remaining drug trafficking organizations or other organized crime groups without further political effort

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Summary

Introduction

There is hardly any doubt that regulating drug markets would substantially challenge the business model of criminal groups currently profiting from their strategic position along the supply-chain for illegal drugs.1 whether this would provide governments with an advantage in keeping organized crime more in check remains hypothetical.Among advocates, the expectations of the impact of regulation on organized crime are high. There is hardly any doubt that regulating drug markets would substantially challenge the business model of criminal groups currently profiting from their strategic position along the supply-chain for illegal drugs.1 whether this would provide governments with an advantage in keeping organized crime more in check remains hypothetical.

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