Will peak talent arrive before peak oil or peak demand?: Exploring whether career choices of highly skilled workers will accelerate the transition to renewable energy

Abstract

Peak oil and peak demand hypotheses have generated significant research attention as claims that identify and explain pathways to decarbonization, but perspectives from human capital have been less prominent. We outline a peak talent hypothesis based on the idea that current and future oil and gas talent – comprising managerial, professional, and technical positions requiring a university degree – are opting to leave fossil fuels for careers in renewable energy. This phenomenon responds to multiple facts and arguments relating to climate change and, in turn, may accelerate decarbonization trends by encouraging more rapid change in oil and gas firms toward investments in renewable energy as well as increasing the number of workers choosing to work for renewable energy firms. This labor mobility effect may increase the shift from oil and gas to renewable energy. We propose areas of research that focus on the decision-making and motivations of talented workers, the strategies of firms to attract and retain talent, and the academic degree programs that train talented workers. Consideration of peak talent also motivates a deeper analysis of labor in social science studies of energy.