Will malaria return to Europe under the greenhouse effect?

Abstract

Malaria risk is determined by environmental and socio-economic factors. The predicted climate change under the greenhouse effect is likely to affect the epidemic potential of malaria due to a change in vector mosquito phenology and distribution. This effect was simulated using a computer model incorporating mosquito life stages and parasite infections in the mosquito and human host. It was found that both air and water temperature are the most important factors determining mosquito phenolo- gy and density. A temperature rise of +4°C shows major changes in mosquito distributions and densities at a worldwide scale, but more so in temperature regions than near the equator. The European situation was taken as an example to study epidemic potential under climate change. Malaria risk, in particular that of Plasmodi- um vivax , would increase under climate change. There is little risk for transmission of P. falciparum in currently temperate areas because the local anophelines are refracto- ry to this parasite. In areas adjacent to malaria endemic regions, however, climate change may cause a dramatic shift in P. falciparum risk.