Will Inflation Expectations Affect Residents’ Financial Exclusion?

Abstract

Based on the data of Chinese Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2015, this paper uses instrumental variable method to conduct empirical research on the relationship between residents’ inflation expectation and financial exclusion. The results show that individual inflation expectation can significantly improve the probability of residents’ financial exclusion. Individual inflation expectation has a significant positive impact on the exclusion of residential investment products and credit products. Furthermore, through the interaction term, it is found that only in the group with high inflation expectation, economic information can significantly reduce residents’ financial exclusion. In addition, inflation expectation has obvious heterogeneity in the exclusion of different financial products. In addition, individual inflation expectations also have a significant impact on the number of residents’ financial products, rising inflation expectations raised the residents in the low risk allocation on financial products, to reduce the risk allocation of the financial product, at the same time, individual inflation expectations of residents, there is no significant difference among the production and business operation loans accounted for, But it has significantly increased the share of consumer loans.