Abstract
ABSTRACTAs a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized precipitation index (SPI, which accounts for anomalous low rainfall), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI, which accounts for high temperatures and scarce precipitations), and the reconnaissance drought indicator (RDI, similar to SPEI but more affected by extreme events), has been computed at 3‐ and 12‐month accumulation scales to characterize trends in seasonal and annual events from 1981 to 2100. Climate data from 11 bias‐adjusted high‐resolution (0.11°) simulations from the EURO‐CORDEX (coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment) have been used in the analyses. For each simulation, the frequency and severity of drought and extreme drought events for 1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 have been analysed. Under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5), droughts are projected to become increasingly more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean area, western Europe, and Northern Scandinavia, whereas the whole European continent, with the exception of Iceland, will be affected by more frequent and severe extreme droughts under the most severe emission scenario (RCP8.5), especially after 2070. Seasonally, drought frequency is projected to increase everywhere in Europe for both scenarios in spring and summer, especially over southern Europe, and less intensely in autumn; on the contrary, winter shows a decrease in drought frequency over northern Europe.
Highlights
Among weather and climate-related natural disasters in the last decades (IPCC, 2014b, 2014a), drought can be considered a special case, as its global tendency towards more or less frequent drought events is still an open and debated issue (Dai, 2011, 2013; Sheffield et al, 2012; Spinoni et al, 2014; Trenberth et al, 2014; Schubert et al, 2016)
This study aims at exploring projections of drought trends until the end of the 21st century and providing a more complete picture of drought tendencies over Europe from 1951 to 2100
We used an ensemble of 11 bias-adjusted simulations from the EURO-CORDEX datasets (Jacob et al, 2014), which include climate projections for two scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
Summary
Among weather and climate-related natural disasters in the last decades (IPCC, 2014b, 2014a), drought can be considered a special case, as its global tendency towards more or less frequent drought events is still an open and debated issue (Dai, 2011, 2013; Sheffield et al, 2012; Spinoni et al, 2014; Trenberth et al, 2014; Schubert et al, 2016) This is mainly due to the complex characteristics of drought, which usually evolves slowly but can last for months or years (Vogt and Somma, 2000; Wilhite et al, 2007). Drought impacts recorded in the recent past in Europe (e.g. Ciais et al, 2005; Naumann et al, 2015; Blauhut et al, 2015a, 2015b; Stagge et al, 2015a; Stahl et al, 2016) could become more substantial in the future, making the identification of areas where droughts are projected to become more frequent and severe a very important subject
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
