Will comet 209P/LINEAR generate the next meteor storm?

Abstract

Previous studies have suggested that Comet 209P/LINEAR may produce strong me- teor activity on Earth on 2014 May 24; however, exact timing and activity level is difficult to estimate due to the limited physical observations of the comet. Here we reanalyze the optical observations of 209P/LINEAR obtained during its 2009 appari- tion. We find that the comet is relatively depleted in dust production, with Af {\rho} at 1 cm level within eight months around its perihelion. This feature suggested that this comet may be currently transitioning from typical comet to a dormant comet. Syn- dyne simulation shows that the optical cometary tail is dominated by larger particles with {\beta} ~ 0.003. Numerical simulations of the cometary dust trails confirm the arrival of particles on 2014 May 24 from some of the 1798-1979 trails. The nominal radiant is at RA 122 +/- 1 deg, Dec 79 +/- 1 deg (J2000) in the constellation of Camelopardalis. Given that the comet is found to be depleted in dust production, we concluded that a meteor storm (ZHR>=1000) may be unlikely. However, our simulation also shows that the size distribution of the arrived particles is skewed strongly to larger particles. Coupling with the result of syndyne simulation, we think that the event, if detectable, may be dominated by bright meteors. We encourage observers to monitor the expected meteor event as it will provide us with rare direct information on the dynamical history of 209P/LINEAR which is otherwise irretrievably lost.