Will citrus geographical indications face different climate change challenges in China?

Abstract

Global climate change resulting from human activities has brought opportunities and challenges to agricultural production. Therefore, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate habitat suitability for citrus geographical indications (GIs) based on nine environmental factors. Under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) in the 2050s, 2070s and 2090s, the potential suitable area changes in the four citruses (orange, pomelo, mandarin and tangerine) were studied. The results showed that the four citrus types were all severely affected by the precipitation in the driest month and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The suitable area for citrus GIs moved north in future scenarios. It decreased in the South subtropical Humid Zone but increased in the North subtropical Humid Zone. The suitable habitats for citrus changed in three ways: (1) both the high- and low-suitability areas for the orange GI gradually increased; (2) the high-suitability areas for pomelo and mandarin GIs increased while their low-suitability areas decreased; and (3) the low-suitability area for the tangerine GI increased, while their high-suitability areas rapidly decreased. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario in the 2090s, the highly suitable area for the tangerine GI decreased by 91.40%. The effects of climate change on the habitats of the four geographical indication-designated citruses varied. The four citrus types under the SSP1–2.6 scenarios all showed relatively minor changes when compared to the current suitable areas. Therefore, strengthening intergovernmental cooperation to achieve carbon neutrality, controlling global temperature increases and proposing a sustainable pathway under the SSP1–2.6 scenario can benefit high-quality fruit production.