Will China invade Taiwan: War Game Strategy and Lessons for China from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

The China-Taiwan crisis is witnessing a paradigm shift amid rising uncertainty due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Every act, smaller or larger in western capitals against Russia in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is enlightening the Chinese policymakers, strategists, and leadership calculations over their futuristic war choices and possible invasion of Taiwan. There is a high chance of China invading Taiwan. What will be the future of Taiwan, the center for new American security has war gamed the situation and has revealed a possible conflict between China and Taiwan, dragging America to the center of the conflict. The game strategy has been used as a conceptual framework, to shed light on what planning, policymaking, and strategies will be required to deal with the hypothetical scenario. How will China react in the future, if Taiwan tries to become even closer to the western world, particularly America? The military blunders of the Russian army on the battlefield, the western united front against Russia on economic sanctions, the powerful strategy of information warfare in the digital world by the Zelensky government, and the response of the international community to Moscow’s invasion have sent shockwaves across China’s policy-making circles, but so far it hasn’t deterred the leadership morale in shaping its narrative of reunification. This study helps to analyze, the war gaming perspective of the China-Taiwan possible conflict, apart from war gaming scenarios, it also analyzes the actual situation, on how China would deal with the situation on economic, information, and diplomatic fronts. It also helps us to understand, why the conflict will be of tremendous importance, especially to America’s pacific and western allies.