Will carbon motivated border tax adjustments function as a threat?

Abstract

Due to large incremental carbon emissions, China might become an important target country of CBTA (carbon motivated border tax adjustments). To levy CBTA could reduce China’s emissions. Meanwhile, China’s emissions reduction could also be achieved by China’s climate policies (termed as CBTA-emissions-equivalent policies). This paper contributes to the discussion on CBTA by comparing the potential regional effects of CBTA and CBTA-emissions-equivalent policies. The main findings are as follows: (1) CBTA and CBTA-emissions-equivalent policies would result in relocations of outputs across regions and countries, affect the structure of economy and contribute to world’s emissions reduction. (2) There would be significant differences in the regional effects between CBTA and CBTA-emissions-equivalent policies. (3) Compared to carbon tax, CBTA would be a costly and inefficient policy instrument to reduce emissions, but could function as an effective coercion strategy. (4) These policies would result in competitiveness issue and rebound effects, wherein different countries would be affected differently. China is a large economy and energy consumer with high openness to international trade. Looking ahead, the Chinese government should consider the potential interactions between China and other economies when designing tax reforms.