Will Brazil’s push for low-carbon biofuels contribute to achieving the SDGs? A systematic expert-based assessment

Abstract

Bioenergy can be part of strategies towards achieving climate and energy-related UN Sustainable Development Goals, especially for land abundant countries. Biofuel advocates argue that such strategies advance at least one-third of the SDGs, whereas opponents claim that they lead to negative trade-offs. Numerous studies have explored the benefits and risks of early bioenergy policies. Here we study the new Brazilian biofuel policy Renovabio, which was designed to increase the share of biofuels in the national energy mix of the world’s second largest biofuel producer to 18%. We use an impact score scheme to assess the potential effects of the policy on the SDGs based on expert opinions and triangulate our findings with a literature review. Our results indicate that these experts entertain high expectations for the policy’s mechanisms to increase bioenergy production and promote the substitution of fossil fuels. The policy is expected to support climate-related, economic and technological SDG targets, while potential impacts in other SDG dimensions, such as environmental, social, and health targets are contradictory. Our results reflect the positions in the debate around biofuels and indicate a need for effective sustainability safeguards to ensure that national policies like Renovabio actually live up to their declared objectives.